Amid a record large production estimate, projected 2025-26 canola ending stocks are higher this month – even with a marked increase in expected demand.
In updated monthly supply-demand estimates released Wednesday, Agriculture Canada pegged 2025-26 canola ending stocks at 2.95 million tonnes, up 450,000 from the November forecast. If accurate, stocks would be almost 85% above the previous year’s 1.597 million and easily top the five-year average of just under 2 million tonnes. However, stocks would still fall short of the 2023-24 ending stocks level of 3.225 million.
This month’s supply-demand estimates reflect Statistics Canada’s Dec. 4 crop production report, which raised 2025 Canadian canola output to a new high of 21.804 million tonnes, up from the agency’s model-based projection in September of 20.028 million.
With the larger crop, Ag Canada raised the total 2025-26 canola supply to a five-year high of 23.501 million tonnes, up from 21.726 million in November and 22.595 million a year earlier.
On the demand side, Ag Canada revised the expected 2025-26 canola crush up 200,000 tonnes from last month to a new record of 12 million, up 5% from last year’s 11.412 million and above the five-year average of 10.3 million. The 2025-26 export forecast was raised from last month as well, up 1 million tonnes to 8 million – still below 9.331 million in 2024-25.
The estimated average 2025-26 canola price, No.1 Track Vancouver, is forecast at $660/tonne down $10 from November, below last year’s $677 and well below the five-year average price of $811.
