Agriculture Canada has tightened its 2026-27 canola supply-demand outlook slightly from last month, while raising its average price forecast.
In its October supply-demand update released Tuesday, Ag Canada lowered projected 2026-27 canola ending stocks by 11,000 tonnes to 1.968 million, compared to 1.979 million in September. The reduction was entirely due to a slight downward revision in ending stocks for the previous crop year, with all other major supply and demand estimates for 2026-27 left unchanged.
Ending stocks for the completed 2025-26 crop year were revised lower by 11,000 tonnes to 1.889 million tonnes from 1.9 million in September. That reduction carried directly into the new-crop year, trimming total 2026-27 supplies to 24.069 million tonnes from 24.08 million.
Meanwhile, Ag Canada raised its forecast average canola price to $800/tonne from $775 in September, representing a 12.5% increase from the 2025-26 average of $711.
Canadian canola production for 2026-27 remains estimated at 22.051 million tonnes, based on Statistics Canada's September model-based estimates. That would be the second-largest crop on record, just below last year's record 22.227 million tonnes.
On the demand side, Ag Canada left its export forecast unchanged at 7.7 million tonnes, down 14% from 2025-26, as more canola is expected to be processed domestically.
Domestic crushings are forecast at a record 13.9 million tonnes, up from 12.891 million last year. Total domestic use remains projected at 14.401 million tonnes.
Looking ahead, Ag Canada identified remaining harvest conditions, crop quality, demand for canola oil and meal, and evolving international trade policies as key factors influencing the market.
