Alberta’s latest 2026 yield estimates remain well above longer-term averages but are running below the final yields achieved in 2025, according to the latest provincial crop report on Friday.
On a provincewide basis, major crops (spring wheat, oats, barley, canola, and dry peas) are expected to yield about 20% above their five-year average, virtually unchanged from the previous estimates released in late July, the report showed. However, all five major crops currently have lower yield estimates than Statistics Canada’s final 2025 Alberta averages.
This year's average Alberta spring wheat yield is estimated at 53.9 bu/acre, down from 59.6 bu/acre in 2025, a decline of about 10%. Barley is projected at 70.7 bu/acre, roughly 12% below last year’s 80.7 bu/acre, while oats are estimated at 74.5 bu/acre, about 14% below the 86.4 bu/acre achieved last year.
Canola has the largest year-over-year decline, with the current estimate of 37.7 bu/acre about 17% below the 45.4 bu/acre recorded in 2025. Dry peas are estimated at 43.1 bu/acre, approximately 5% below last year’s 45.6 bu/acre.
Regionally, the South continues to have the strongest outlook relative to historical averages, with yields projected 62% above the five-year average. Central Region yields are expected to be 23% above average, followed by the Peace at 9% and North East at 2%. The North West is forecast 3% below its five-year benchmark.
Crop conditions improved slightly during the week, with 59% of Alberta’s major crops rated good to excellent, up 1 point and in line with the 10-year average. Conditions were strongest in the South at 78% and Central at 70%, compared with 48% in the North East, 37% in the North West and 49% in the Peace.
Meanwhile, showers brought some relief to dry southern areas but added to excess moisture in northern Alberta. Provincially, 47% of surface soil moisture was rated good to excellent, above the five-year average of 40% but below the 10-year average of 51%. Northern regions will require more warmth and sunshine to help crops finish, while parts of the South and Central regions remain short of normal moisture reserves.
Region One: South (Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost)
• Many crops are ripening with warm weather and are near harvest. Rain showers could help crops such as peas fill out more, but many early cereals will see no benefit from continued showers.
• Sub-surface soil moisture (5-year average) is rated as 30 (36) per cent poor, 39 (42) per cent fair, 30 (20) per cent good, 2 (2) per cent excellent and 0 (0) per cent excessive.
• Pasture conditions (tame hay) are rated as 15 (14) per cent poor, 39 (42) per cent fair, 47 (45) per cent good, and 0 (0) per cent excellent.
Region Two: Central (Rimbey, Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen)
• Pea harvest and swathing of cereals is estimated to start next week as spring cereals are on average in early dough and hot weather is advancing crops.
• While scattered rain showers brought relief from heat in some areas of the region, many areas reported that the rain was not enough to replenish soil moisture. Sub-surface soil moisture (5-year average) is rated as 18 (27) per cent poor, 39 (30) per cent fair, 35 (37) per cent good, 5 (5) per cent excellent and 3 (2) per cent excessive.
• Pasture growth conditions (tame hay growth) are rated 14 (18) per cent poor, 41 (35) per cent fair, 44 (47) per cent good and 1 (0) per cent excellent.
Region Three: North East (Smoky Lake, Vermilion, Camrose, Provost)
• Continued rain has slowed haying progress as only 53 per cent of first cut dryland is complete and 35 per cent of first cut hay is rated good-to-excellent. Some producers are turning to silage as an alternative.
• Sub-surface soil moisture (5-year average) is rated as 5 (24) per cent poor, 17 (35) per cent fair, 27 (36) per cent good, 42 (4) per cent excellent and 9 (0) per cent excessive.
• Pasture growth conditions (tame hay growth conditions) are rated as 1 (1) per cent poor, 32 (48) per cent fair, 43 (26) per cent good and 24 (26) per cent excellent.
Region Four: North West (Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley, Athabasca)
• Cool weather has delayed crop advancement with 23 per cent of canola still in flower compared to the provincial average of 14 per cent. Peas are reported to be 9 per cent flowering compared to the provincial average of 4 per cent.
• Some fields are being assessed for potential alternate uses of preharvest options where crops are unlikely to be economically viable through harvest.
• Sub-surface soil moisture (5-year average) is rated as 0 (17) per cent poor, 1 (34) per cent fair, 30 (41) per cent good, 52 (8) per cent excellent and 18 (0) per cent excessive.
• Pasture growth conditions (tame hay growth conditions) are rated as 0 (0) per cent poor, 24 (23) per cent fair, 49 (49) per cent good, 27 (28) per cent excellent.
Region Five: Peace (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview)
• Staging progress was slow over the past week due to cool weather and occasional showers across the region.
• Sub-surface soil moisture (5-year average) is rated as 0 (16) per cent poor, 9 (37) per cent fair, 50 (37) per cent good, 41 (11) per cent excellent and 0 (0) per cent excessive.
• Pasture growth conditions (tame hay growth conditions) are rated as 14 (11) per cent poor, 36 (33) per cent fair, 41 (45) per cent good and 9 (11) per cent excellent
