Grain, oilseed and pulse prices have strengthened since the beginning of 2026, but producers still face considerable uncertainty heading into the new crop year, according to a Farm Credit Canada website post this week.
Authored by FCC senior economist Justin Shepherd, the post said the war in the Middle East and renewed concerns about Black Sea shipping have helped support commodity prices, while global demand has also been stronger than expected. Although last year’s global crop was large, firmer demand and geopolitical disruptions have tightened the outlook for many commodities.
The stronger price environment has prompted FCC to raise its 2026-27 projections for several crops. Ontario corn is forecast to average $275/tonne, soybeans $615, Saskatchewan canola $690 and spring wheat $290. However, FCC noted that elevated input costs, trade uncertainty, and market access risks will continue to influence farm profitability.
The post also examined how historical seasonal price patterns can help producers make marketing decisions. FCC found that prices for canola, wheat, corn and soybeans often weaken around harvest as supplies move into the commercial system, before improving later in the marketing year.
Historically, Saskatchewan canola prices have tended to strengthen later in the crop year, while wheat prices have generally shown less volatility. Ontario corn prices often come under pressure during harvest before improving as the year progresses, while soybean prices have typically been weakest around harvest and strengthened into the following spring and summer.
FCC stressed that seasonal trends should not be used in isolation. Current market conditions, storage costs, interest expenses, grain quality and cash-flow needs all need to be considered when deciding when to sell.
Spreading sales across several points in the marketing year can help reduce the risk of selling an entire crop during a seasonally weak pricing period. Knowing cost of production also remains critical as producers develop marketing plans for the 2026 crop and begin looking ahead to 2027.
Read the full article here:
https://www.fcc-fac.ca/en/knowledge/economics/new-grain-marketing-year
