Canada’s 2026 canola crop is expected to remain exceptionally large despite a sharp pullback in yields from last year’s record levels, according to Statistics Canada’s first production estimates of the season.
Model-based production estimates released by Statistics Canada on Wednesday pegged national canola production at 22.05 million tonnes, down just 0.8% from the upwardly revised 2025 crop of 22.227 million. If realized, the crop would be the second largest on record, behind only last year’s production.
Today’s canola production estimate also easily tops Agriculture Canada’s August estimate of 21.6 million tonnes. Meanwhile, the increase in the 2025 crop size represents a hike of about 418,000 tonnes from the previous estimate of 21.809 million.
The 2026 national average canola yield is projected at 41.8 bu/acre, an 8.3% decline from 45.6 bu in 2025. Although well below last year, the projected yield remains relatively strong historically, matching the 2020 average and sitting near levels recorded in several other recent high-yielding years.
The smaller yield is being largely offset by a major expansion in acreage. Canadian farmers seeded about 23.45 million acres of canola this year, up from 21.638 million acres in 2025. Harvested area is estimated at a record 23.242 million acres, an 8% increase from 21.511 million acres last year.
However, the final size of the 2026 Canadian canola crop remains uncertain as heavy rain and persistent harvest delays across Western Canada have raised concerns about potential yield and production losses. Repeated rainfall since late August has left fields saturated in parts of the Prairies, slowing combining and increasing the risk of lodging, sprouting and other weather-related damage.
In the largest production province of Saskatchewan, canola output is estimated at 12.657 million tonnes, up 1.8% from 12.435 million tonnes in 2025. The gain comes despite the average yield falling 7.3% to 41.9 bu from 45.2 last year. Harvested area is projected to climb nearly 10% to a record 13.32 million acres, more than offsetting the yield decline.
In Alberta, canola production is forecast to fall 3.8% to 6.111 million tonnes from 6.349 million last year. Average yield is expected to decline 9.3% to 41.2 bu from 45.4, while harvested area rises 6% to 6.54 million acres.
Manitoba production is projected at 3.094 million tonnes, down 4.8% from 3.25 million tonnes in 2025. Yield is forecast to fall 9.3% to 42.9 bu from 47.3, while harvested area increases 5% to 3.18 million acres.
Ontario is bucking the Prairie trend, with production estimated at 72,455 tonnes, up from just over 59,000 last year, while average yield rises to 50.9 bu from 49.8.
The next StatsCan production estimates, due in December, will be based on a survey of Canadian farmers.
