Global wheat production is forecast to reach about 810 million tonnes in 2026, down nearly 3% from last year’s record-high levels, according to a new outlook from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
Despite the expected year-over-year decline, output is still expected to remain above the five-year average, reflecting generally favourable growing conditions in several key regions.
The projected drop in output is largely tied to moderate reductions in planted area and a return to more typical yields after exceptionally strong harvests in 2025. Softer global wheat prices have also encouraged some farmers to shift acreage to alternative crops, the outlook said.
In the European Union, weaker wheat prices prompted farmers to scale back winter wheat plantings. Although some eastern and northern areas experienced cold spells during the winter, weather across much of the region has been mostly mild and favourable. As a result, yields are expected to remain above average, even as total production declines slightly from last year.
In Russia – the world’s largest wheat exporter - wheat acreage is forecast to continue trending lower as farmers increasingly favour oilseeds, which currently offer stronger returns. Dry conditions during the planting season also weighed on winter wheat establishment, pointing to a moderate year-over-year decline in production.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s wheat output is expected to remain relatively steady, with planted area and yield prospects largely unchanged from last year, although overall production remains well below levels seen prior to the ongoing conflict.
In the U.S., wheat production is projected to decline from last year’s high levels due to reduced plantings and a return to more normal yields, though output is still expected to remain above the five-year average.
Canada could see slightly higher wheat plantings in 2026, driven mainly by increased soft wheat acreage. However, assuming average yields, total production is expected to fall from last year’s strong harvest.
Across Asia, the outlook is more stable. India’s wheat crop is expected to remain close to last year’s record high, supported by government incentives that encouraged record sowings. Pakistan is also anticipating favourable production prospects due to good irrigation supplies and strong crop conditions, while China’s wheat output is forecast to remain broadly steady.
