The United Nations is warning that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a severe global food price crisis within the next six to 12 months, as higher energy and fertilizer costs ripple through global agricultural supply chains.
In a new podcast released earlier this week, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said the disruption is no longer viewed as a temporary shipping issue, but rather the beginning of a broader agrifood shock with potentially far-reaching consequences.
FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero said governments, international financial institutions, private industry, and aid agencies must act quickly to improve the ability of countries to absorb the shock and avoid a broader food inflation crisis. The organization warned that decisions being made now on fertilizer use, crop choices, imports, and financing could determine whether food shortages and price spikes intensify later this year and into 2027.
According to FAO, the effects are already becoming visible in world food markets. The FAO Food Price Index rose for a third consecutive month in April, driven largely by surging energy prices and Middle East supply disruptions. The organization outlined a chain reaction beginning with higher energy costs, followed by rising fertilizer and seed expenses, lower crop yields, higher commodity prices, and ultimately broader food inflation.
FAO officials said alternative trade routes through the eastern Arabian Peninsula, western Saudi Arabia, and the Red Sea may help ease some pressure, although those corridors have limited capacity. The organization also stressed the importance of avoiding export restrictions on food, energy, and fertilizers, while protecting humanitarian food shipments.
Concerns are being amplified by the potential arrival of El Niño conditions, which could bring drought and weather disruptions to key crop-producing regions around the world.
FAO released a broad list of policy recommendations, including expanding emergency credit for farmers and agribusinesses, improving digital support systems for vulnerable households, avoiding policies that increase biofuel demand during shortages, and investing in more resilient transportation, storage, and irrigation systems.
The agency also called for increased use of precision agriculture, improved fertilizer efficiency, and stronger early warning systems to help countries respond more quickly to future supply shocks.
