The International Grains Council has raised its 2025-26 global grains production estimate to a new high, although ending stocks are still expected to remain relatively tight.
In its monthly Grain Market Report on Thursday, the IGC pegged total new-crop grains production (wheat and coarse grains) at 2.375 billion tonnes, up 2 million from the April forecast and 3% above a year earlier.
“Prospects for the next grain harvest remain broadly favourable,” the IGC said, although it cautioned an unusually dry winter and early spring has reduced yield potential in parts of eastern Asia.
But while production is projected to rise in 2025-26, global grains consumption is expected to largely keep pace at 2.372 billion tonnes and ending stocks are forecast at 585 million. That is up 5 million from last month and 4 million above a year earlier, but down from 605 million in 2023-24 and 620 million in 2022-23.
The IGC held its 2025-26 world wheat production estimate steady from last month at 806 million tonnes, up from 799 million in 2024-25. However, estimated global wheat ending stocks are up 2 million tonnes from April to 262 million but still 7 million below a year earlier.
Global corn output for 2025-26 was bumped 3 million tonnes higher from last month to 1.277 billion tonnes, due in part to a 1-million tonne increase in expected Brazilian production to 131 million. Global corn ending stocks were revised 3 million tonnes higher from April to 284 million, compared to 275 million the previous year.
For soybeans, the IGC is tentatively estimating worldwide production for 2025-26 at 428 million tonnes, unchanged from last month but 2% higher on the year and a new record high. At 81 million tonnes, estimated global soybean ending stocks for 2025-26 are down 2 million tonnes from April and 1 million below last year.
While soybean shipments to China are seen little changed year-over-year, The IGC said larger deliveries to other destinations in Asia, as well as to Africa, should support an estimated 1% increase in trade.
