The 2026-27 U.S. wheat supply-demand numbers were steady from last month in updated USDA supply-demand estimates released Friday, but global stocks got heavier amid an upward revision in production.
The report put 2026-27 world wheat production at 822.43 million tonnes, up 3.13 million from August but still well down from last year’s crop of 843.99 million.
Global ending stocks rose more sharply than traders expected, climbing 3.04 million tonnes from August to 276.29 million, but still down from 280.6 million in 2025-26.
Ahead of the report, a Bloomberg survey had traders looking for world stocks to edge down 300,000 tonnes to about 273 million.
Much of the additional supply came from major exporters. The USDA raised Australia’s crop by 3 million tonnes to 31 million, Canada by 1 million to 36 million, and Ukraine by 600,000 to 26 million. On the other hand, Kazakhstan was cut 1 million tonnes to 15 million.
The USDA reduced both Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports as Black Sea war-related logistics continue to hamper shipments. Russia’s 2026-27 export forecast was cut 3 million tonnes from last month to 43 million, and down from 48 million a year earlier. Ukraine’s exports were lowered to 12.5 million tonnes from 13.50 million last month, compared to 14.1 million in 2025-26.
With expected combined Black Sea shipments down, the USDA raised the 2026-27 Canada and Australia wheat export forecasts by 1.5 million tonnes each to 30 million and 23.5 million, respectively. Projected Argentina exports were raised 500,000 tonnes from last month to 15.5 million.
Overall world wheat exports were cut 940,000 tonnes from August to 211.77 million tonnes.
As for the U.S., USDA made no changes to the aggregate 2026-27 balance sheet. Production remained at 1.531 billion bu, imports at 140 million, domestic use at 1.099 billion, exports at 775 million, and ending stocks at 717 million bu, far below 920 million in 2025-26.
The USDA did raise the projected U.S. season-average farm price by 20 cents/bu to $6.40, way up from $5.06 the previous year, citing reported cash prices, futures expectations and stronger corn prices.
