The USDA raised its 2026-27 U.S. soybean yield and production estimates fractionally from last month, but ending stocks were trimmed regardless as stronger exports more than absorbed the additional supply.
The monthly USDA supply-demand released Friday put the average American soybean yield at 52.8 bu/acre, up 0.1 bpa from August’s 52.7 bpa. Harvested area was also raised 100,000 acres to 85.9 million acres, lifting production by 16 million bu to 4.535 billion bu, and 6.4% above the 2025 crop of 4.262 billion.
The production and yield estimates were both above pre-report trade expectations. A Bloomberg survey showed traders looking for yield to decline 0.3 bu to 52.4, with production at 4.492 billion bu, down 27 million from August.
On the demand side, USDA left its 2026-27 crush estimate unchanged from last month at 2.78 billion bu, while raising exports by 25 million bu to 1.685 billion, versus 1.52 billion in 2025-26
The stronger export outlook pushed projected 2026-27 ending stocks down to 310 million bu, a 10-million bu decline from August and down from 325 million the previous year.
USDA also raised its 2026-27 season-average soybean farm price by 60 cents/bu to $12, up from $10.50 a year earlier.
Globally, USDA nudged 2026-27 soybean production up 100,000 tonnes to 442.3 million tonnes. Higher output in the U.S. and Canada was partly offset by reductions for India and the European Union. Global crush and exports were raised, while imports increased mainly for the EU, India and Japan. World soybean ending stocks were cut 200,000 tonnes to 124 million, largely reflecting the tighter U.S. carryout.
