The International Grains Council has raised its estimate of 2026-27 world grains production from last month, but while also warning of the potential negative impact of El Nino.
In its monthly Grain Market Report on Thursday, the IGC pegged total world grains production (wheat and coarse grains) at 2.426 billion tonnes. That is up 12 million tonnes from the May projection but remains 2% below the previous year – a decline the IGC attributed to reduced planted area and expected weaker yields.
With larger production, the IGC also raised its consumption estimate from last month but also bumped its 2026-27 ending stocks estimate 3 million tonnes higher to 618 million. If accurate, total world grains ending stocks would be down 3% on the year, but still more or less in line with the five-year average.
At 445 million tonnes, 2026-27 world grains trade is forecast to stay at a high level, down by 3% year-over-year, “led by smaller wheat and barley flows,” the IGC said.
In its accompanying commentary, the IGC cautioned on El Nino, noting that while there is an increased chance of yield variability - especially for the next southern hemisphere harvests - the outcome remains uncertain at this stage.
“There are concerns too, about fertilizer affordability, but with a more recent fall in input prices offering some relief,” the IGC added.
At an estimated 1.31 billion tonnes, world corn production in 2026-27 is up 10 million from last month amid upward adjustments to crops in India, Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, and Paraguay. World corn ending stocks are estimated at 298 million tonnes this month, up 7 million from May but down from 313 million in 2025-26.
Global wheat production for 2026-27 was revised 1 million tonnes higher from last month to 821 million, compared to 845 million a year earlier. Most of the increase was due to an expected larger Russian crop.
World wheat ending stocks are seen at 280 million, down 2 million from May and 6 million below the forecast for 2025-26.
World soybean supply-demand estimates for 2026-27 were left unchanged from last month, with expected production holding at 442 million tonnes, up from 431 million the previous year. Projected ending stocks of 76 million tonnes are down 3 million from 2025-26.
