The International Grains Council has lowered its forecast for 2026-27 world grain production, with weaker wheat and corn prospects contributing to a tighter global supply outlook.
In its August Grain market Report released Thursday, the IGC pegged total world grains production (wheat and coarse grains) at 2.416 billion tonnes, down about 5 million from its July forecast and 77 million below the estimated 2.493 billion produced in 2025-26.
At 2.444 billion tonnes, total estimated 2026-27 grains consumption was lowered 3 million from July and is now 2 million below a year earlier.
Global total grains ending stocks were cut by 4 million tonnes from July to 606 million, down 28 million from 2025-26.
Wheat accounted for a significant portion of the monthly production downgrade. The IGC reduced its 2026-27 global wheat crop estimate to 817 million tonnes from 821 million in July, leaving production 27 million below the previous year's 844-million tonne crop.
Wheat ending stocks were similarly lowered, falling 4 million tonnes from July to 275 million. That would also be 10 million tonnes below the 285 million estimated for 2025-26.
The outlook for corn was little changed month over month, with global production trimmed 1 million tonnes to 1.305 billion. However, that remains 41 million tonnes below the record 1.346 billion estimated for 2025-26. Corn ending stocks were unchanged from July at 293 million tonnes, but are down 18 million from the previous year's 311 million.
The IGC said sustained heat has further damaged crop prospects in Europe, prompting another reduction to its EU production outlook.
Meanwhile, Black Sea grain shipments remain heavily disrupted by heightened security risks, with deep-sea exports from Russia and Ukraine effectively at a standstill.
For soybeans, the IGC left 2026-27 world production unchanged from July at 441 million tonnes, up 9 million from 2025-26. Ending stocks were also steady month over month at 75 million tonnes, down from 80 million the previous year.
