Top producer Kansas is expected to help lead the charge as a higher average national yield is forecast to lead to bigger American winter wheat production this year.
In its first survey-based winter wheat estimates released earlier this week, the USDA pegged the 2025 average US winter wheat yield at 53.7 bu/acre, up 2 bu from a year earlier. If accurate, it would be the second highest on record, trailing only 55.3 bu in 2016. The higher average yield more than offsets an expected 1.5% fall in harvested area to 25.71 million acres, with production forecast to rise 2% to 1.381 billion. If accurate, it would be the largest American winter wheat crop since 2016 at 1.672 billion.
Kansas winter wheat harvested area is forecast lower as well – down about 3.5% on the year to 6.9 million acres – but this year’s average yield in the state is projected 7 bu higher at 50 bu/acre, the highest since 2010 at 52 bu. With the higher yield, Kansas winter wheat output this year is pegged at 345 million bu, up a hefty 12% from 2024.
The average Oklahoma yield is projected up 1 bu from 2024 to 39 bu/acre, but a small drop in harvested area is forecast to trim the state’s production to 107.25 million bu, down about 1 million from a year earlier.
Although a minor producer, California is expected to see the biggest winter wheat yield jump in 2025, up 12 bu from last year to 90 bu/acre. Yields in Idaho and Kentucky are each forecast 8 bu higher on the year, at 97 and 83 bu/acre, respectively.
In contrast, winter wheat yields in the central Plains are projected to take a hit, amid persistent dryness. Year-over-year yield declines of 14 bu/acre are forecast for both Nebraska and South Dakota, to 38 and 49 bu/acre, with production in the two states falling 32.4% and 28.3% to 32.3 million and 34.3 million bu.
In Soft Red Winter wheat areas around the Great Lakes, yields are expected little changed compared to a year earlier.
The average Michigan yield is estimated at 87 bu/acre steady from 2024. But with harvested area up to 490,000 acres from 375,000 a year ago, state production is nonetheless projected to increase 10 million bu or about 30% to 42.63 million.
Ohio’s average yield is forecast down 1 bu from last year to 84 bu/acre, but with production rising 6% to 42 million bu on a larger harvested area.
Illinois winter wheat harvested area is estimated down 20,000 acres from 2024 to 680,000 with the average yield slipping 1 bu to 85 bu/acre. Production in the state is seen at 57.8 million bu, down from 60.2 million a year ago.
