Amid strong demand it was no secret that old-crop Canadian canola stocks were tightening. Statistics Canada confirmed as much in its quarterly grain stocks report Thursday.
The report pegged national canola stockpiles as of March 31 at just 5.869 million tonnes, down 38.7% from a year earlier. It is the lowest since drought slashed 2021 Prairie canola production by 26% to 14.248 million and dropped March 2022 stocks to 5.754 million.
Today’s stocks number also fell below the average pre-report trade guess of just over 6 million tonnes and provides further evidence that remaining old-crop supplies must be severely rationed. Last year, between March and the end of the crop year on July 31, canola usage amounted to 6.833 million tonnes – about 1 million more than is on hand for the same period this year.
In its April supply-demand update, Agriculture Canada surprisingly left its canola numbers unchanged from the previous month, with projected 2024-25 ending stocks holding at 1.3 million tonnes, a 12-year low. Meanwhile, the government’s canola export forecast, at 7.5 million tonnes, has already proven to be too low, with shipments as of April 27 totalling 7.694 million tonnes.
At the same time, domestic use of canola — largely for crushing — reached a record for the period ending March 31, 2025, at 8.1 million tonnes (+3.1%), surpassing the previous record set in 2020.
The canola market has rallied as old-crop supplies dwindle, with the nearby July contract rising to near or above the $700/tonne level and trading at a much larger-than-usual premium to the new-crop November future.
To make the supply-demand numbers work, it remains an open possibility StatsCan will have to ‘find’ more canola by raising its 2024 production forecast from the current 17.845 million tonnes, just as it has done in prior years.
The bulk of the sharp decline in March 31 canola stocks compared to a year earlier is due to 42.8% fall in on-farm stocks to 4.582 million. Commercial stocks were down 18.2% to 1.287 million tonnes.
On-farm canola stocks in the largest production province of Saskatchewan amounted to 2.656 million tonnes as of March 31, down 52.1% on the year. Alberta on-farm canola stocks were down 60.7% at 1.047 million tonnes, and Manitoba stocks fell 46.5% to 831,000 tonnes.
