Ontario winter wheat acres this fall are expected to be down from a year ago, even as growers enjoyed mostly excellent planting conditions.
RealAgriculture agronomist Peter Johnson pegged winter wheat planted area for harvest in 2026 at close to 1 million acres – but not over that threshold. If accurate, that would be down from the 1.18 million acres Statistics Canada estimated farmers in the province planted in the fall of 2024, and the first time planted area fell below 1 million since 930,300 acres went into the ground for harvest in 2022.
“The economics on everything are poor, but most growers consider wheat to be the poorest,” Johnson said in an email message on Friday. “Acres would have been down a lot without excellent fall weather.”
Ontario weather has turned wetter this week, but conditions throughout September and into October were mostly warm and dry, allowing good progress on the soybean harvest and providing producers with a good window for winter wheat planting.
Johnson said winter wheat acres east of Toronto appear to up sharply, although that area is a relatively small grower and producer overall. On the other hand, acres in the much larger southwest production area are down from last fall, he said.
“Growers know the value of wheat in the rotation but still struggle to grow it given economics,” Johnson said.
As of Thursday, most southwestern Ontario elevators were posting a Soft Red Winter basis of about $1 over the new-crop July 2026 Chicago future, making around $6.50/bu to the producer. The spot basis for 2025-crop Soft Red was around the same, making $6.15.
Chicago wheat futures touched a five-year low last week, as prices at all three US wheat exchanges have been under pressure from accelerating shipments from No. 1 exporter Russia, and heavy global supplies.
In its monthly Grain Market Report on Thursday, the International Grains Council raised its 2025-26 world wheat production estimate by 8 million tonnes from October to 827 million, now 27 million above the previous year.
The good news for the 2026 Ontario winter wheat crop, Johnson said, is that it is off to an excellent start given the earlier extended summer conditions.
