U.S. and global ending wheat stocks were revised higher from last month in Thursday’s USDA supply-demand update, with both estimates exceeding trade expectations
For the U.S., 2025-26 wheat ending stocks were estimated at 938 million bu, up from 931 million in March and above the average pre-report trade estimate of 923 million. That leaves U.S. carryout 10% above the 2024-25 level of 855 million bu and at its highest since 2019-20.
The bigger surprise came on the global balance sheet. World wheat ending stocks for 2025-26 were pegged at 283.1 million tonnes, up from 276.9 million in March. That was above the average pre-report trade estimate of 277.4 million tonnes. World ending stocks are now 24 million tonnes, or 9% above the 2024-25 level of 259.1 million.
The increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks stemmed from slightly larger imports, now forecast at 125 million bu versus 120 million last month, and marginally lower domestic use due to reduced seed demand. Exports were unchanged at 900 million bu. The season-average farm price was raised 5 cents to $5/bu.
Globally, the USDA raised its 2025-26 wheat production estimate for the world’s largest exporter, Russia, to 90.3 million tonnes from 89.5 million, with projected exports up 1 million to 44.5 million. EU wheat output was also revised higher, up to 145.1 million tonnes from 144 million, while exports held steady at 30.5 million.
In other changes, Australia wheat exports were trimmed 500,000 tonnes from last month to 26.5 million. Ukraine’s production stayed at 24 million tonnes, but exports were cut to 12.5 million from 13.5 million.
Wheat futures were trading 1-7 cents/bu lower this afternoon.
