The USDA cut its average US corn yield estimate by less than expected on Friday, with projected 2025-26 ending stocks creeping higher.
The USDA’s November supply-demand update – the first since September after the now-ended US government shutdown scuttled the October report – pegged this year’s average American corn yield at 186 bu/acre, down just 0.7 bu from September yet still 6.7 bu higher than last year and still a new record.
With expected corn harvested area unchanged from September at 90 million acres, the slight yield adjustment lowered forecasted production by 62 million bu, bringing the total to 16.752 billion — up 12% from 2024 and the largest US crop ever, if realized. Despite the small production cut, an upward revision in beginning stocks – up 207 million bu from September based on the Sept. 30 grain stocks report - pushed the 2025-26 estimated total supply 144 million bu higher.
On the demand side, the most significant shift came from exports. USDA raised its export projection by 100 million bu from September to 3.075 billion, citing inspection data that imply exports set a monthly record during September and again in October.
The bottom line was a 44-million bu increase in forecasted 2025-26 ending stocks this month to 2.154 billion bu, up sharply from 1.532 billion in 2024-25.
Market expectations had pointed to deeper cuts: a Reuters poll anticipated yields falling to 184 bu/acre, which would have trimmed production by more than 250 million bu. But the USDA’s more moderate revision, combined with higher-than-expected Sept. 1 inventories, left the balance sheet more comfortable than analysts had forecast.
Corn futures were down about a dime in trading this afternoon, following the report’s noon hour EST release.
State-level yields showed broad strength as well. Iowa, the top-producing state, is pegged at 216 bu/acre, up 5 from last year; Illinois is projected at 221 bu/acre versus 217 bu last year. The average Ohio yield, at 194 bu/acre, was up from 177. On the other hand, the average Michigan yield slipped to 178 bu/acre from 181 a year ago.
Foreign corn production changes were mixed. Higher output in Mexico and the European Union, led by stronger expectations in France, was partly offset by reductions for Egypt and Germany. Projected Brazil and Argentina production for 2025-26 was left steady from September at 131 million and 53 million tonnes, respectively.
Ukraine corn exports for 2025-26 were dropped 1 million tonnes from September to 24.5 million, while China’s expected corn imports were reduced 2 million tonnes to 8 million – still well above 1.82 million a year earlier.
World corn ending stocks are estimated at 281.34 million tonnes this month, little changed from 281.4 million in September and down from 291.66 million a year earlier.
The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 10 cents this month to $4/bu
