The 2025-26 US soybean outlook has tightened, as the USDA on Friday trimmed its yield estimate and reduced projected ending stocks.
The USDA’s November supply-demand update, the first since September due to the now-ended US government shutdown, lowered the national average soybean yield by 0.5 bu/acre to 53 bpa, which cut production by 48 million bu to 4.253 billion. Combined with a downward revision to 2024-25 beginning stocks — now 316 million bu, 14 million lower than previously reported — total 2025-26 soybean supplies fell 61 million bu from September.
Demand shifts played a central role in shaping the new outlook, particularly on the export side. The USDA cut its 2025-26 export forecast by 50 million bu to 1.635 billion – down from 1.875 billion the previous year - citing reduced US supplies and intensifying competition from Brazil and Argentina.
In its commentary, the USDA noted Argentina’s temporary reduction of export taxes in September prompted a surge in export registrations during what is typically the US peak shipment window. At the same time, a new U.S.–China trade deal lifted American soybean prices, narrowing the spread between US and South American supplies. While it said US shipments to China are expected to strengthen later in the marketing year, the USDA also cautioned that gains in that market could be offset by declines elsewhere, as the US no longer holds a significant price advantage over major competitors.
Domestic crush was left unchanged from September at 2.555 billion, versus 2.445 billion a year earlier
Projected 2025-26 US soybean ending stocks are estimated 10 million bu lower this month at 290 million, versus 316 million in 2024-25, a modest but notable tightening of the U.S. balance sheet.
Private-sector expectations had been slightly different heading into the report. A Reuters survey projected the average US soybean yield at 53.1 bu/acre, down 0.4 from September, and anticipated a smaller production reduction of about 35 million bu. Analysts also expected ending stocks to rise to around 304 million bu.
Nonetheless, soybean futures were lower in trading today, down more than 20 cents/bu.
Globally, soybean production and inventories were also revised lower. The USDA trimmed 2025-26 global soybean ending stocks by about 2 million tonnes to 121.99 million, driven by reductions in the US, Argentina, Brazil, the EU, Ukraine, and India. Foreign production changes were mixed, but South America remains central to the global outlook. Argentina soybean production for 2025-26 was left steady from September at 48.5 million tonnes, but exports were revised up to 8.25 million from 6 million in September. Brazil soy output for 2025-26 was steady from September at 175 million tonnes, with exports rising 500,000 tonnes to 112.5 million.
At $10.50/bu, the 2025-26 average expected US soybean price is up 50 cents from September.
