Thanks mainly to a record large Canadian crop, 2025-26 global rapeseed output is estimated by the USDA at a new peak as well.
The USDA this week pegged world rapeseed production for the current marketing year at 95.27 million tonnes. That’s up 3 million tonnes or 3.25% from last month’s projection and now sits almost 9.3 million or 10.8% above the 2024-25 global crop of 86 million. The rebound comes after the 2024-25 crop was hit by poor weather in major producing countries.
The USDA has raised its 2025-26 Canadian rapeseed (canola) production estimate to 22 million tonnes, up 2 million from its November forecast, following updated Statistics Canada data released last week. The survey-based StatsCan report pegged national canola output at 21.803 million tonnes, up about 1.7 million from the federal agency’s model-based September projection and now 13.3% above the 2024 crop of 19.239 million. If accurate, it would be the largest crop on record, surpassing the 2017 crop of 21.458 million.
Additionally, the USDA raised its 2025-26 Australia rapeseed production estimate by 500,000 tonnes from November to 7.2 million, up from 6.4 million in 2024-25. Russia’s rapeseed crop was revised higher as well, up to 6 million tonnes from 5.5 million in November and 6.4 million the previous year.
With supplies expanding, global rapeseed trade and crush are also forecast higher. World trade is projected 900,000 tonnes higher this month, while global crush is increased by 1.6 million tonnes, supported by rising demand for vegetable oils and protein meals. Higher imports are expected from the European Union, Japan, Mexico, Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates, the USDA said.
Global rapeseed ending stocks for 2025-26 are forecast at 12.5 million tonnes, with Canada accounting for roughly 30% of the total.
