Global grain and oilseed prices are expected to climb sharply this year and continue rising in 2027, driven by tightening supplies, adverse weather, strong biofuel demand, and disruptions to Black Sea trade.
The World Bank Group’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook, released Wednesday, forecasts grain prices will rise 14% in 2026 and another 9% in 2027, while oils and meals prices are projected to increase 17% and 8%, respectively.
Wheat is expected to lead the grain market higher, with prices forecast to surge 28% this year and another 14% in 2027 before retreating 11% in 2028.
Global wheat production is projected to decline 3% in 2026-27, including a 23% drop in the U.S., a 12% reduction in Canada and declines of 23% to 25% in Argentina and Australia. Wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine are also expected to fall amid heightened Black Sea hostilities.
Corn prices are forecast to increase 10% in 2026 and 5% next year, reflecting an anticipated 3% decline in global production.
For oilseeds, soybean prices are expected to rise 18% this year and another 5% in 2027, supported by strong biofuel demand despite a projected sixth consecutive record global crop.
Soybean oil prices are forecast to surge 39% in 2026 and another 11% next year, while soybean meal is expected to advance 18% and 10%, respectively. Palm oil prices are projected to rise 14% and 10%.
Despite tightening grain supplies, the World Bank said total global grain availability in 2026-27 should remain the second largest on record, helping limit price increases.
Meanwhile, fertilizer prices are forecast to rise an average of 14% in 2026, largely reflecting earlier strength in urea prices. Potash prices are also expected to increase significantly, partly due to farmers shifting purchases away from more expensive fertilizers.
Fertilizer prices are projected to return to approximately 2025 levels in 2027, supported by easing energy costs and improved availability of ammonia and sulfur.
The report warned that worsening El Niño conditions, continued Black Sea disruptions and further Middle East supply shocks could push agricultural commodity prices above current forecasts.
The full report is available here:
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/1c9dc022-37f3-4d4f-95be-1e353b232a8c/content
