Statistics Canada is a forecasting a larger Canadian canola crop this year, although still slightly below 20 million tonnes.
In model-based production estimates released Thursday, StatsCan pegged the 2025 national canola crop at 19.937 million tonnes, up 3.6% from the previous year and potentially the largest crop since 2018 when farmers harvested 20.723 million. The estimate fell below the average pre-report trade guess of 20.3 million tonnes, as well as the upwardly revised Agriculture Canada projection earlier this month of 20.1 million.
At 41 bu/acre, the average expected national yield is up 2.2 bu from last year, offsetting a 2% decline in harvested area to 21.423 million. StatsCan put 2025 canola planted area at 21.617 million acres, up slightly from its June projection of 21.457 million.
Today’s report incorporates satellite imagery and agroclimatic data up until the end of July, when conditions across parts of Western Canada were drier. Wetter weather in August improved crops in many areas, meaning canola production still likely has more room to the upside. StatsCan’s next round of 2025 production estimates, based on conditions as of August, will be released Sept. 17.
Canola production in the largest canola production province of Saskatchewan is estimated at 11.071 million tonnes, up almost 6% on the year and potentially the largest crop since 2019. Yields are projected to increase by 5.1% to 40.3 bu/acre, while harvested area is expected to edge up 0.8% to 12.128 million acres.
Canola production in Alberta is expected to increase by 2.8% to 5.757 million tonnes, near the 2023 crop of 5.713 million. The anticipated rise is the result of higher yields – up 6.1% to 41.5 bu/acre, mostly in the central part of the province, which received sufficient precipitation. Harvested area is expected to decrease 3.1% to 6.117 million acres.
In Manitoba, canola yields are expected to increase by 8.2% to 43.5 bu/acre, while harvested area is anticipated to fall by 9.6% to 2.989 million acres. As a result, production is expected to decrease by 2.2% to 2.949 million tonnes.
StatsCan described Prairie growing conditions up until the end of July as variable. In some areas, lower-than-average precipitation and prolonged high temperatures resulted in below-average crop conditions, while parts of Western Canada that received sufficient precipitation saw above average crop conditions, it said.
