Canadian families should brace for another costly year at the supermarket, as food costs are expected to climb in 2026, driven in part by soaring beef prices.
That’s the key takeaway from Canada’s Food Price Report 2026, which forecasts that average household spending on food will jump by up to $994 next year, pushing annual grocery costs for a family of four to $17,571.79.
Overall food prices are predicted to rise between 4% and 6%, continuing a trend that has pushed food costs 27% higher than five years ago. Meanwhile, nearly one-quarter of Canadian households already struggle with food insecurity, the report said.
Global weather events, consumer behaviours, changes in retail business models, and the inflationary impacts of tariffs are all cited as major factors in pushing food costs higher. But report authors say the ongoing trade dispute with the U.S. has especially created market uncertainty. Amid the “Buy Canadian” movement sparked this year, the report noted a 6.9% decrease of US food sales in Canada. Consumers, however, are still prioritizing value and affordability over country of origin, the authors add.
While most categories will see modest increases, meat prices, and particularly beef, have vaulted far beyond expectations. Beef prices spiked 19% in the first quarter of 2025 alone, and despite stabilizing later in the year, remain 23% higher than the five-year average.
Saskatchewan researcher Stuart Smyth attributes the escalation to nearly a decade of drought that has reduced cattle numbers to their lowest levels since the late 1980s.
“Reduced supply and consistent demand creates upward pressure,” Smyth says, noting that consumers committed to purchasing beef will need to “be increasingly conscious of optimum purchasing opportunities.”
The report, now in its 16th year, is produced by researchers from 10 Canadian universities and uses predictive models that factor in climate change, geopolitical turbulence, and economic policies.
