China’s imports of rapeseed are projected to fall sharply in the 2025-26 marketing year as trade frictions with Canada cut off the country’s largest supplier, according to a report from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).
Released late last month, the FAS report pegged China’s rapeseed imports at 3.1 million tonnes, down from 4.1 million in the previous outlook and well below the 4.5 million tonnes now estimated for 2024-25.
The decline is driven by Beijing’s August 2025 decision to impose a temporary anti-dumping duty of 75.8% on Canadian canola seed. While officially a deposit pending the outcome of an investigation extended to March 2026, the duty has effectively halted Canadian shipments. Canada supplied nearly 97% of China’s rapeseed imports in the first nine months of 2024-25, making the ruling a major disruption.
This move follows earlier measures in March 2025, when China levied 100% anti-dumping duties on Canadian canola oil and meal. The escalation leaves Chinese crushers scrambling for alternatives. Reports suggest Beijing is working to restart rapeseed imports from Australia, which were blocked in 2020 over phytosanitary concerns. State-owned COFCO has reportedly begun test shipments, though none have yet appeared in official customs data, the FAS report said.
Despite the supply challenges, Chinese demand for rapeseed remains firm, particularly from the aquaculture industry and in regional cooking where rapeseed oil is a staple. Imports of rapeseed oil in the first 10 months of 2024-25 reached 1.88 million tonnes, up 6% year-over-year, with Russia supplying nearly 60% of the total. Analysts suggest oil imports could rise further in 2025-26 as seed imports decline.
Meanwhile, China’s soybean imports are expected to remain relatively stable. Forecasts call for 106 million tonnes in 2025-26, unchanged from earlier estimates, while 2024-25 imports are now expected to reach 107 million tonnes. Growth in crushing demand remains modest, and Beijing continues efforts to curb reliance on foreign soybeans. US exports face particular headwinds: a 23% tariff has made American soybeans uncompetitive, and China has not booked new US crop purchases since May.
