Canadian canola stocks at the end of March are potentially indicating heavier 2023-24 ending stocks than currently expected.
A Statistics Canada grain stocks report on Tuesday pegged canola stocks in all positions as of March 31 at 8.263 million tonnes, a 17.5% increase over a year earlier and the highest for that date since 2020, at 10.859 million.
The stocks report implies December 2023 -March 2024 canola usage of 4.59 million tonnes, more than 1 million below the same period the previous year. Meanwhile, if usage between March 31 and the July 31 end of the current crop year is about the same as a year earlier at 5.52 million tonnes, that suggests 2023-24 canola ending stocks of about 2.7 million – 700,000 higher the current Agriculture Canada forecast.
Although the domestic crush remains strong, canola exports so far in the 2023-24 crop year have lagged the previous year by approximately one-third – something StatsCan blamed on heavy global supplies of soybeans and palm oil. As for the crush, it was running almost 11% ahead of last year at the end of March, mostly due to increased demand from the renewable diesel sector
StatsCan reported on-farm stocks of canola as of March 31 at 6.689 million tonnes, up 16.3% on the year, while commercial stocks were 22.7% heavier at 1.574 million.
On-farm stocks in Saskatchewan, the largest canola production province, were estimated at 3.536 million tonnes as of March 31, almost 23% higher than a year earlier. At 2.032 million tonnes, on-farm stocks in Alberta were up 21.6% on the year.
On-farm stocks in Manitoba were down slightly, slipping to 1.074 million tonnes from 1.155 million on March 31, 2023, a drop of 7%.
