Canadian oat stocks as of March 31 were down by more than half from the previous year, while barley stocks were moderately heavier.
At 1.292 million tonnes, total national oat stocks at the end of March were almost 51% below the same time last year – but still modestly above the March 2022 stocks level of 1.228 million - a Statistics Canada grain stocks report on Tuesday showed. On the other hand, barley stocks as of March 31 were reported at 3.058 million tonnes, an increase of 10.5% on the year.
The sharp year-over-year fall in oat stocks was mainly due to last year’s small crop, with production falling 49.5% to 2.636 million tonnes, on a combination of lower yields and a major reduction in planted area.
At 852,000 tonnes, implied oat usage between December 2023 and March 2024 was down from 957,000 during the same time the previous year. Demand will have to be lower in the March-July period as well, as demand during that timeframe in 2023 amounted to 1.35 million tonnes – which would create a negative ending stocks situation for 2023-24. For its part, Agriculture Canada is forecasting 2023-24 Canadian oat stocks at 400,000 tonnes.
For barley, December 2023-March 2024 usage of 2.395 million tonnes was almost exactly in line with the same period last year. If March-July demand is like a year ago at 2.06 million tonnes, that would translate to 2023-24 ending stocks of about 1 million tonnes, just as Ag Canada is forecasting.
On-farm stocks of oats as of March 31 dropped 57.9% to 954 000 tonnes, while commercial stocks fell 7.9% to 339 000 tonnes.
Both domestic use (-12% to 1 million tonnes) and exports (-9.8% to 1.6 million tonnes) of oats decreased compared with the same period one year earlier, StatsCan said.
For barley, commercial stocks fell 19.5% to 450 000 tonnes but were offset by on-farm stocks, which rose 18% to 2.6 million tonnes.
Domestic barley use — largely for feed — decreased 2.3% to 4.8 million tonnes, as cattle producers in Western Canada likely opted to feed more corn. Exports of barley also decreased, falling 37.2% compared with the same period in 2023 to 1.8 million tonnes.
At 1.2 million tonnes, on-farm barley stocks in Alberta were up from 1.14 million a year earlier, while Saskatchewan stocks increased to 880,000 tonnes from 601,000. Manitoba on-farm barley stocks were heavier as well, up to 450,000 tonnes from 340,000 the previous year.
In the largest oat production province of Saskatchewan, on-farm stocks of oats amounted to 440,000 tonnes, down more than 67%.
