The USDA has raised its 2025-26 US all wheat production estimate slightly from last month, although ending stocks are down.
The USDA’s monthly WASDE report on Thursday pegged all wheat output at 1.921 billion bu, up 115,000 from last month on the strength of a slightly larger winter wheat crop. However, a 25-million bu increase in the export forecast to 825 million more than offset the production increase, dropping the 2025-26 ending stocks forecast to 898 million from last month’s 923 million. However, ending stocks remain above the 2024-25 level of 841 million bu, which was unchanged from May.
Going into the report, traders and analysts were looking for a larger increase in the all wheat production estimate, with both old- and new-crop ending stocks rising from last month. Wheat futures were trading mixed this afternoon, with the winter wheat contracts lower and spring wheat higher.
The increase in this month’s all wheat production estimate is due to higher Soft Red Winter and White Winter production, which more than blunted a decline in expected Hard Red output.
The 2025 US Soft Red Winter crop is now estimated at 345 million bu, up less than 1% from last month, while the White Winter crop is pegged at 254 million bu, an increase of 1%. On the other hand, the Hard Red crop is forecast at 782 million bu this month, down less than 1% from the May estimate.
The USDA said this month’s higher 2025-26 wheat export forecast is due to strong early sales, especially for Hard Red Winter.
Global wheat production for 2025-26 is estimated at 808.59 million tonnes this month, up slightly from 808.52 million in May and 799.91 million a year earlier.
EU wheat production was bumped 550,000 tonnes higher from last month to 136.55 million, while other major producers, including Canada (36 million tonnes), Australia (31 million) and Russia (83 million) were left unchanged.
Old-crop world wheat ending stocks were lowered 1.23 million tonnes from last month to 263.98 million, while 2025-26 stocks dropped nearly 3 million lower to 262.76 million.
The projected 2025-26 US season-average farm price for wheat is down a dime from last month at $5.40/bu on the reduced stocks, versus $5.50 in 2024-25.
