The USDA on Tuesday below the doors off market expectations with a monster US corn production estimate, thanks in part to surprising upward revisions in the planted and harvested area estimates.
The government’s monthly supply-demand report pegged this year’s American corn crop at a record 16.742 billion bu, an increase of more than 1 billion bu from the July estimate of 15.705 bu and 13% above the previous year. It also easily topped the average pre-report trade guess of just under 16 billion bu.
Corn futures were trading about 14 cents/bu lower, following the report’s noon EST release.
As expected, the USDA raised its average yield estimate, bumping it 7.8 bu higher from last month to 188.8 bu/acre, and now 9.5 bu above last year’s average of 179.3 bu. However, the bigger surprise was a significant increase in the USDA’s corn planted and harvested area estimates from July. Planted area was raised to 97.3 million acres from 95.2 million last month and 90.6 million last year, while harvested area increased to 88.7 million acres from 86.8 million last month and 82.9 million in 2024. The USDA provided no explanation for the increase.
Both corn yield and area are at now at record levels.
Projected US corn beginning stocks for 2025-26 are 35 million bu lower this month to 1.305 billion, based on a slightly higher use forecast for 2024-25. For 2024-25, larger corn exports are partly offset by reductions in corn used for ethanol and glucose and dextrose.
On the new-crop demand side, total use was raised 545 million bu to 15.955 billion. Feed and residual use climbed 250 million bu to 6.1 billion on the back of the larger crop and lower prices, ethanol use rose 100 million bu to 5.6 billion, and exports increased 200 million to a record 2.875 billion, amid strong US competitiveness.
Even with these demand gains, the supply surge pushed projected ending stocks up 457 million bu from last month to 2.117 billion — the largest carryout since 2018-19. The season-average farm price was lowered 30 cents/bu to $3.90, the lowest since 2020-21.
Globally, corn production is now forecast at 1.288.6 billion tonnes, up sharply on higher US output. Global ending stocks rose to 282.54 million tonnes, up from 272.08 million in July but still below 283.11 million in 2024-25.
At 10 million tonnes, China’s 2025-26 corn imports were unchanged from July and up from 4 million in 2024-25.
