The USDA has tightened its 2025-26 US corn balance sheet, amid a smaller old-crop carryin and a lower 2025 production estimate.
The government’s monthly supply-demand update on Friday pegged new-crop US corn ending stocks at 1.66 billion bu, down 90 million from the June estimate and below the average pre-report trade guess of 1.721 billion. Regardless, corn futures were trading 3-4 cents lower this afternoon.
The USDA trimmed 2025-26 beginning stocks by 25 million bu to 1.34 billion, citing stronger-than-expected exports in the final months of the 2024-25 marketing year. Old-crop exports were revised 100 million bu higher from last month to 2.75 billion – a potential new record high that was only partially offset by lower feed and residual use.
On the new-crop demand side, the USDA trimmed its feed and residual estimate by 50 million bu from last month to 5.85 billion bu.
Meanwhile, with new-crop US corn planted area reduced 100,000 acres from last month to 95.2 million acres – as per the June 30 USDA acreage report - 2025 production was lowered by 115 million bushels to 15.705 billion. Notably, the national average yield remained unchanged at 181 bu/acre. With planted area down, the USDA lowered its corn harvested area estimate to 86.8 million acres from 87.4 million in June.
Globally, corn ending stocks for 2025-26 are now projected at 272.08 million tonnes, down 3.16 million from last month and the lowest since 2013-14. The reduction is largely due to lower carryout projections in China and India, only partly offset by higher expected stocks in Brazil.
Global corn production for 2025-26 was lowered to 1.547 billion tonnes, down 3.6 million from June, on downgrades to Canada, Ukraine, and Iran. Still, global output remains near record highs. As expected, the USDA raised its Brazilian corn projection, up 2 million tonnes from last month to 132 million.
The 2025-26 average US farm price for corn was left unchanged at $4.20/bu, suggesting that the market has already priced in much of the current supply adjustment. However, with global stocks trending lower and trade dynamics evolving, any weather disruptions or policy shifts in the months ahead could quickly reshape the outlook.
