The 2025-26 and 2026-27 canola outlooks have tightened markedly from last month.
In updated monthly supply-demand estimates released Thursday, Agriculture Canada cut the 2025-26 canola carryout by 1 million tonnes from July to 1.725 million tonnes, now just modestly above the 2024-25 ending stocks level of 1.597 million. Meanwhile, 2026-27 ending stocks are now seen at 1.504 million tonnes, down from 2.074 million last month.
For 2025-26, production was unchanged from July at 21.809 million tonnes, but stronger-than-expected demand substantially tightened the balance sheet. Exports were raised to 9.1 million tonnes from 8.5 million, while crush was increased 400,000 tonnes to to 12.5 million. Total domestic use consequently rose to 12.701 million tonnes from 12.301 million.
In its accompanying commentary, Ag Canada said demand for Canadian canola and by-products remained strong, including increased business outside established markets. Strong canola oil demand and expanding processing capacity are expected to lift the 2025-26 crush 10% from a year earlier and 22% above the five-year average. Exports remain 3% below the previous year but 14% above average.
For 2026-27, Ag Canada increased its production forecast by 600,000 tonnes from last month to 21.6 million. Total supply was nevertheless trimmed to 23.455 million tonnes from 23.825 million, largely because of the steep reduction in projected carry-in stocks.
Ag Canada said above-average yields in areas experiencing favourable Prairie growing conditions could offset reduced output in regions affected by drought or excess moisture. The crop would be the second largest on record, although August weather remains critical for pod filling, it added.
The 2026-27 crush was also revised higher, up 200,000 tonnes from last month to a record 13.7 million, reflecting expanded crushing capacity and expectations for continued strong demand for canola oil as a feedstock. Projected exports were unchanged at 8 million tonnes.
The tighter balance sheet leaves 2026-27 ending stocks 13% below the revised 2025-26 level. Agriculture Canada also raised its Vancouver canola price forecast to $720/tonne from $710 in July, while the 2025-26 estimate increased to $711 from $700.
