Agriculture Canada raised its old-crop export estimates and lowered ending stocks for wheat, durum, barley and oats in its August supply-demand update released Thursday, while the 2026-27 outlook featured larger wheat and durum production but tighter carryout projections for barley and oats.
For wheat (excl durum), 2025-26 production was unchanged from July at 32.82 million tonnes, but exports were raised 550,000 tonnes to 23.95 million. That helped reduce projected ending stocks to 5.231 million tonnes from 5.5 million last month. The average price forecast increased $4 to $269/tonne.
The 2026-27 wheat crop was raised substantially, with production now forecast at 29.996 million tonnes, up 779,000 tonnes from July. Exports were increased 250,000 tonnes to 23.45 million, while ending stocks remained at 4.3 million. The price forecast rose $5 to $300/tonne.
For durum, 2025-26 production remained at 7.135 million tonnes, while exports were increased to 5.840 million from 5.6 million. Ending stocks were consequently lowered to 642,000 tonnes from 1 million, with the price raised $2 to $282/tonne. For 2026-27, production was increased 233,000 tonnes to 6.275 million, although exports were cut to 4.92 million from 5.15 million. Ending stocks and price remained unchanged at 1.2 million tonnes and $270/tonne, respectively.
The 2025-26 barley export estimate rose 100,000 tonnes to 4.17 million, while ending stocks fell by the same amount to 870,000 tonnes. The price was trimmed $2 to $283/tonne. For 2026-27, production was reduced 100,000 tonnes to 9.1 million and ending stocks were lowered to 800,000 from 900,000 tonnes. Exports remained at 3.3 million and the price at $295/tonne.
Oat changes were comparatively modest. The 2025-26 export forecast rose 50,000 tonnes to 2.4 million, lowering ending stocks to 750,000 tonnes from 800,000 and lifting the price $2 to $307/tonne. For 2026-27, production and exports were unchanged at 2.94 million and 2.35 million tonnes, respectively, while stocks were trimmed 50,000 tonnes to 400,000. The price remained at $315/tonne.
