Agriculture Canada sharply tightened its lentil supply outlook in its August supply-demand estimate on Thursday, cutting ending stocks for both 2025-26 and 2026-27 as exports strengthened and new-crop production was reduced.
Meanwhile, the pea balance sheet moved in the opposite direction, with slightly higher carryout stocks following a reduction in old-crop exports.
For dry peas, 2025-26 production was unchanged from July at 3.934 million tonnes, while exports were lowered by 50,000 tonnes to 2.65 million. As a result, projected ending stocks increased by 50,000 tonnes to 1.040 million, pushing the stocks-to-use ratio to 31% from 29%. The average price forecast remained unchanged at $300/tonne.
The changes flowed into the 2026-27 pea outlook, where production was maintained at 3.15 million tonnes and exports remained at 2.7 million. However, the larger old-crop carry-in lifted total supply to 4.21 million tonnes from 4.16 million in July, raising projected ending stocks by 50,000 tonnes to 860,000. The average price forecast held steady at $310/tonne.
The revisions were much more substantial for lentils.
For 2025-26, production was unchanged at 3.363 million tonnes, but Agriculture Canada raised expected exports by 200,000 tonnes from July to 2.5 million. That reduced ending stocks by an identical amount to 1.215 million tonnes from 1.415 million and lowered the stocks-to-use ratio to 44% from 55%. Despite the tighter balance sheet, the average price forecast was cut $10 to $500/tonne.
The 2026-27 lentil outlook tightened even further. Production was reduced by 150,000 tonnes from July to 2.5 million, while exports were increased by 100,000 tonnes to 2.4 million.
Combined with the lower carry-in from 2025-26, total supply dropped to 3.79 million tonnes from 4.14 million last month. Projected ending stocks were cut by 450,000 tonnes to 1.09 million, lowering the stocks-to-use ratio to 40% from 59%.
Agriculture Canada left its 2026-27 lentil price forecast unchanged at $520/tonne.
