Chicago soybean futures surged Monday morning, following reports over the weekend the US and China had come to terms on the framework of a new trade deal that would see China return as a significant buyer of American soy.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that China will make “substantial” purchases of US soybeans, after two days of meetings with Chinese officials in Malaysia. Separately, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said an initial consensus was reached on various bilateral issues including agriculture.
Although details remain uncertain, the soybean market jumped on the news. The nearby January future was up 22 cents to $10.82 around 10 am EST, with the new-crop November 2026 contract up 11 cents at $10.91 ½ (See January soybean future below).
Amid trade tensions between the two nations, China has so far not purchased a single bushel of the 2025 American soybean crop. Instead, the Asian has sourced most of its soybean import needs from South America.
In a statement Sunday, the American Soybean Association (ASA) said it was encouraged by the apparent breakthrough after months of market uncertainty.
"ASA is encouraged by Secretary Bessent’s comments that trade talks with China are productive and include US soybeans. Signals of purchase commitments are a positive step, and we look forward to learning more details later this week.”
China is typically the top buyer of U.S. soybeans by a huge margin. In 2023-24, the US shipped nearly 25 million tonnes of soybeans to China while a mere 4.9 million were exported to No. 2 buyer, the European Union. Prior to the 2018 trade war, the US shipped an average of $12.8 billion worth of soybeans to China per marketing year.
US President Donald Trump is expected to discuss trade with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the APEC Summit in South Korea later this week.
Also on the weekend, the US signed two trade deals with Malaysia and Cambodia and announced a framework for reciprocal trade with Vietnam and Thailand.
As part of those announcements, ASA said the White House “noted multiple provisions favourable to U.S. soybean exports,” including:
The elimination or reduction of major non-tariff barriers in each country, including favorable language on biotechnology regulations, sanitary and phytosanitary provisions (SPS), and other non-tariff barriers.
January canola: source - Barchart
