Manitoba’s spring flood outlook is little changed from February, but the province’s latest update does note increased risk in some parts of the Interlake.
In its March outlook on Friday, the provincial Hydrologic Forecast Centre said the Fisher River basin now carries a moderate to major flood risk, making it the clearest area of heightened concern as spring runoff approaches. Back in February, the province grouped the Fisher River with the broader Interlake region under a general moderate flood risk.
Overall Manitoba’s spring flood outlook changed only modestly from February to March, with provincial forecasters still calling for a low to moderate flood risk on most rivers.
Moderate flood risk remains in place for the Red, Assiniboine and Souris rivers, along with the Icelandic River and parts of the Saskatchewan River in northern Manitoba. But some areas that were flagged more cautiously in February now appear less threatening. The Pembina River, for example, moved out of the moderate risk category and is now listed among the lower risk Red and Assiniboine tributaries, alongside the Rat and Roseau rivers.
The province said underlying conditions remain generally favourable. Soil moisture at freeze-up was near to below normal across much of Manitoba, winter precipitation has mostly been near to below normal, and frost depths are normal to shallower than normal, allowing meltwater to soak in more easily. Snow-water content is mostly normal, although southern Manitoba remains below typical levels, while the Fisher basin has normal to above-normal snow water content.
March’s report also showed flood preparations advancing. Ice-cutting and breaking are now complete on the Red and Icelandic rivers, compared with February, when work was still underway on the Red. Still, the province stressed that the final outcome will depend heavily on spring weather, rainfall and how quickly the snowpack melts.
