U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2026–27 were left unchanged in the USDA’s July supply and demand report on Friday, even after a larger planted area raised the expected size of the new-crop harvest.
The USDA maintained its new-crop carryout forecast at 310 million bu, unchanged from June and well below the average pre-report trade expectation of roughly 332 million.
New-crop soybean production was increased by 40 million bu to 4.475 billion, reflecting a 700,000-acre increase in planted area to 85.4 million acres. Harvested area was also raised by 700,000 acres to 84.4 million, while the national yield forecast remained unchanged at 53 bu/acre.
However, the larger crop did not translate into an equal increase in total supply. Beginning stocks were lowered by 10 million bushels to 330 million, leaving total 2026–27 supplies up a net 30 million bushels at 4.83 billion.
Meanwhile, the USDA also raised projected soybean exports by 30 million bu to 1.66 billion, citing increased supplies and stronger global demand. Crush remained unchanged at 2.750 billion bu, while total use increased to 4.52 billion. Those demand adjustments fully offset the larger supply outlook and kept ending stocks steady.
Soybean futures were trading 9-13 cents/bu this afternoon.
For 2025–26, the 10-million bu cut in the ending stocks estimate from June to 330 million bu was driven by a 10-million bu increase in projected exports to 1.52 billion. Crush remained unchanged at 2.650 billion bushels.
Globally, 2025–26 soybean ending stocks were trimmed to 125.33 million tonnes from 125.55 million in June. The USDA maintained its production estimates for Brazil and Argentina at 180 million and 50 million tonnes, respectively, while raising Chinese imports by 1 million tonnes to 113 million.
