The USDA lowered its 2026–27 U.S. wheat ending stocks estimate on the heels of a smaller American crop this year.
The USDA in its Friday supply-demand update pegged new-crop wheat ending stocks at 722 million bu, down 22 million from the June estimate. The revised carryout matched the average pre-report trade expectation but was 22% below the 920 million bushels projected for 2025–26.
The reduction reflected a combination of smaller beginning stocks and lower production. Beginning stocks were cut by 15 million bu to 920 million, while the 2026 wheat crop was lowered by 7 million bushels to 1.536 billion. The USDA said that would be the smallest U.S. wheat harvest since 1970–71.
Total supplies were reduced by 22 million bu to 2.596 billion. Domestic use and exports were unchanged, with food use forecast at 960 million bu, feed and residual use at 80 million and exports at 775 million. The season-average farm price remained at US$6/bu.
Winter wheat accounted for most of the production decline. The crop was forecast at 990 million bu, down 39 million from June and 29% below 2025. Hard Red Winter production was cut 5% from last month to 471 million bu, while Soft Red Winter fell 4% to 287 million. White Winter production was little changed at 232 million.
The winter wheat yield was forecast at 46.7 bu/acre, down slightly from June and 8.2 bu below last year. If realized, it would be the lowest national winter wheat yield since 2015.
Other spring wheat production was estimated at 475 million bu, down 4% from last year but above trade expectations. Hard Red Spring accounted for 436 million bu. Durum production was projected at 70.9 million bu, down 18% from 2025 due to reduced harvested area and a slightly lower yield.
Globally, 2026–27 wheat ending stocks were lowered to 272.8 million tonnes from roughly 275.4 million in June. The decline reflected reduced stocks in the U.S., India, Argentina and Canada, even as production forecasts were raised for Russia and Ukraine.
Canadian wheat production for 2026-27 was lowered 1 million tonnes from June to 34 million, while Russia and Ukraine output were both raised 500,000 tonnes to 88.5 million and 24 million, respectively.
