The USDA lowered its old- and new-crop U.S. corn ending stocks estimates more than expected in updated monthly supply-demand estimates released on Friday.
For 2025–26, the USDA cut projected ending stocks by 125 million bushels to 2.02 billion, down from 2.145 billion in June. The reduction was driven mainly by a 150-million bu increase in feed and residual use to 6.35 billion, reflecting stronger disappearance indicated by the June 30 Grain Stocks report.
That increase was partially offset by a 25-million bu reduction in projected corn use for ethanol and by-products, now forecast at 5.55 billion. Exports were raised by 25 million bu to 3.325 billion, lifting total use by 125 million bushels to 16.58 billion.
The USDA also lowered projected 2026–27 ending stocks, down by 170 million bu to 1.79 billion, compared with 1.96 billion in June. Beginning stocks were reduced by 125 million bu because of the tighter old-crop carryout.
Going into today’s report, the trade was expecting old-crop U.S. corn ending stocks to be revised down by a more modest 66 million bu, with new-crop stocks projected to be cut only by about 61 million bu.
Corn futures were trading 7-8 cents/bu after the report’s noon hour EST release.
New-crop production was raised only slightly, increasing by 5 million bu to 16 billion following the June acreage report. The national yield forecast was unchanged at 183 bu/acre.
The main demand change for 2026–27 was a 50-million bu increase in exports to 3.2 billion bushels. Feed and residual use and ethanol demand were left unchanged, putting total use at 16.255 billion bushels, up 50 million from June.
The lower carryout estimates offer some support to corn prices, particularly because the revisions were largely demand-driven. The USDA left its projected season-average farm price unchanged at $4.40/bu for 2026-27 and $4.15 for 2025-26.
Globally, the USDA raised its estimate of 2025-26 Argentina corn crop production by 2 milllion tonnes from June to 63 million, with projected exports rising an identical 2 million to 45 million. Brazil’s crop was unchanged at 138 million.
World corn ending stocks for 2025-26 are seen at 298.67 million tonnes this month, down from 303.36 million in June. For 2026-27, global corn ending stocks are estimated at 275.26 million, versus 281.22 million in June.
