The USDA held its 2025-26 U.S. corn supply-and-demand estimates unchanged from March, defying trade expectations for a modest increase in ending stocks.
Ahead of Thursday’s monthly USDA supply-demand update, analysts had projected a slight rise in U.S. corn carryout to 2.13 billion bu, up about 3 million from March. Instead, the USDA left ending stocks steady at 2.127 billion bu, versus the 2024-25 stocks level of 1.551 billion bu.
On the demand side, feed and residual use was unchanged at 6.2 billion bu, consistent with March 31 Grain Stocks data showing strong first-half disappearance of 9.6 billion bu, up more than 1 billion from a year earlier. The only notable revision came to price, with the season-average farm price raised by 5 cents to $4.15/bu.
Globally, the USDA made only minor adjustments. World corn ending stocks for 2025-26 were increased to 294.8 million tonnes in April, up from 292.8 million in March. This exceeded pre-report expectations of 293.2 million tonnes. However, stocks remain below the 296.3 million tonnes estimated for 2024-25.
In South America, 2025-26 production estimates were unchanged from last month. Brazil’s corn crop was held at 132 million tonnes, matching March and down slightly from 136 million tonnes the previous year. Argentina’s production, at 52 million tonnes, was unchanged from March but above last year’s 50 million.
Corn futures were trading 3-4 cents/bu lower this afternoon, after the report’s noon hour ET release.
