The USDA has raised its 2026-27 U.S. soybean yield and production estimates from October, but projected ending stocks are lower regardless.
The USDA's latest monthly supply-demand updated on Tuesday pegged the average U.S. soybean yield at 53.3 bu/acre, up 0.2 bu from the previous month. With harvested area unchanged at 85.9 million acres, the higher yield translated into a 12-million bu increase in the production estimate to 4.574 billion bu, up 7% on the year and a new record high.
Despite the larger crop, rising demand meant projected 2026-27 U.S. soybean ending stocks were lowered by 15 million bu to 300 million bu, below the 2025-26 carryout of 315 million bu.
Going into the report, most traders and analysts were expecting larger upward revisions to both the average yield and production, with ending stocks also expected to be revised higher from last month.
On the demand side, projected U.S. soybean exports were raised 25 million bu from October to 1.72 billion bu, reflecting larger supplies and the early-season export pace. Domestic crush remained unchanged at 2.78 billion bu, while seed use was increased by 3 million bu to 76 million bu.
The season-average farm price was raised 10 cents to $12.10/bu.
Globally, the USDA lowered its 2026-27 soybean production forecast by 200,000 tonnes to 442.5 million, reflecting expected smaller crops in Ukraine, South Africa, the EU and Mexico. Global soybean ending stocks were reduced by 800,000 tonnes to 123.5 million tonnes, mainly due to lower projected inventories in the U.S. and Argentina.
Soybean futures were trading sharply higher following the report's release, up more than 30 cents/bu.
