U.S. wheat supply-demand estimates for 2026-27 are little changed this month, but the global outlook is heavier.
Tuesday's monthly supply-demand update from the USDA left 2026-27 U.S. all wheat supplies unchanged from October at 2.599 billion bu, with the only revision on the demand side a 3-million bu reduction in expected domestic use. The reduction was entirely due to lower food consumption, with the USDA noting that wheat ground for flour during the July-September quarter was down 2% from a year earlier.
U.S. wheat exports were left unchanged at 750 million bu, although the USDA raised its outlook for White wheat shipments amid strong sales to Asian buyers. Hard Red Winter wheat exports were lowered due to continued weak demand, with shipments now projected to be the second lowest on record.
The reduced domestic use lifted projected 2026-27 U.S. wheat ending stocks by 3 million bu to 743 million bu. That was slightly below the average pre-report trade expectation of 744 million bu and remained 19% below the 2025-26 carryout of 920 million bu.
The season-average farm price was lowered 10 cents to $6.20/bu.
Globally, the USDA raised its 2026-27 wheat production forecasts for Argentina and Australia by 1.5 million tonnes each, to 23 million and 32.5 million, respectively. Production estimates were also increased for Kazakhstan and Ukraine, with Ukraine up 500,000 tonnes from last month to 26.5 million.
Meanwhile, projected wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine were each lowered by 1 million tonnes to 39 million and 11.5 million, respectively, reflecting continued shipping disruptions associated with the Black Sea conflict. That compares to wheat exports of 48 million and 14.1 million for Russia and Ukraine a year earlier.
Despite slightly higher global consumption, projected world wheat ending stocks climbed 4.8 million tonnes from October to 280.8 million, largely reflecting increased inventories in Ukraine, Argentina, Russia and Kazakhstan.
The previous year's global wheat stocks amounted to 282.86 million tonnes.
