The USDA has tightened its 2026-27 outlook for U.S. corn, reflecting a lower yield estimate and a fractional reduction in harvested area compared with August.
Updated monthly supply-demand estimates released by the USDA Friday showed U.S. corn production at 15.8 billion bu, down 213 million from the August forecast of 16.013 billion and now 7.1% below the 2025 crop of 17.021 billion. The USDA cut its 2026 national average yield by 2.2 bu/acre to 178.5 bpa, while harvested area slipped slightly to 88.5 million acres.
The production cut was less severe than traders had expected ahead of the report. A Bloomberg survey showed the trade looking for an average yield of 178.1 bu/acre, down 2.6 bu from August, with production forecast at 15.777 billion bu.
The USDA also lowered 2026-27 U.S. corn beginning stocks by 23 million bu to 1.922 billion, due to an increase in the 2025-26 export forecast. Pre-report expectations had old-crop ending stocks down only 7 million bu to 1.938 billion.
On the demand side, USDA reduced 2026-27 feed and residual use by 150 million bu to 5.95 billion, while leaving exports unchanged at 3.275 billion. That pulled total use down 150 million bu to 16.18 billion.
With the decline in supply exceeding the cut to demand, projected U.S. ending stocks were lowered 86 million bu from August to 1.567 billion, versus 1.653 billion a year earlier and compared to the average trade guess of 1.511 billion.
USDA raised its forecast season-average farm price by 30 cents to $4.80/bu, well up from $4.15 in 2025-26.
The global corn outlook tightened as well. USDA pegged 2026-27 world corn ending stocks at 272.1 million tonnes, down 2.6 million from August. Foreign corn production was reduced for India, Kenya and Russia, partly offset by increases in the European Union and elsewhere.
Chicago corn futures were trading about 3 to 4 cents/bu lower following the report’s release.
