Agriculture Canada held most of its 2025-26 grain and oilseed supply-demand estimates unchanged from last month, although it is more downbeat on prices.
Released Friday, Ag Canada’s October supply-demand update left projected 2025-26 canola ending stocks steady from September at 2.5 million tonnes, up more than 900,000 from the previous year. However, the government’s average price forecast was dropped $30/tonne from last month to $645 (No. 1 Canada, cash, Track Vancouver). That is down 5% from the previous year’s average of $677 and 17% below the five-year average.
Over the past decade, the highest canola price of $1,075 was set in the drought year of 2021-22, while the lowest was $484, set in 2019-20. Canadian canola prices slumped in 2019–20 primarily due to China's restrictions on imports, including revoking licenses for two major exporters, which created market uncertainty and reduced demand.
Canadian canola prices this year are once again being impacted by Chinese import restrictions, with Beijing implementing anti-dumping duties of nearly 76% back in August. China also slapped 100% tariffs on imports of Canadian canola meal and oil earlier this year.
Ag Canada cited progress toward lifting the anti-dumping duty as one of the price factors to monitor for canola this year. Senior Canadian and Chinese officials did discuss various trade irritants between the two countries on Friday, but a Reuters report said there was no indication of any immediate breakthrough.
Meanwhile, Ag Canada also lowered its 2025-26 average price forecasts for oats (US No. 2, heavy, CBOT nearby futures) and barley (No. 1 feed, cash, I/S Lethbridge) from September - down by $20 and $15 to $310 and $270/tonne, respectively. For oats, that represents a drop of $35 from 2024-25 and the lowest price in five years, with barley down from $296 a year earlier due to weaker US corn values.
At $265/tonne (No. 1 CWRS, 13.5% protein, SK spot) the average wheat (excl durum) price is down $5 from September and below $282 a year ago amid “ample global supply and increased export competition,” Ag Canada said. The average durum price was steady from last month at $280/tonne (No. 1 CWAD, 13% protein, SK spot) but below $321 in 2024-25.
The average expected 2025-26 corn price was unchanged from September at $215/tonne (No. 2 CE, cash, I/S Chatham) down from $225 the previous year but still slightly above $211 in 2023-24. The average soybean price was lowered $10 from last month to $485/tonne (No. 2 CE, cash, I/S Chatham). That is little changed from $487 in 2024-25 but well down from $572 in 2023-24 and below the five-year average of $595.
