In the end, it appears Prairie farmers did not stray far from their original canola planting intentions.
Statistics Canada’s acreage report on Friday pegged national canola planted area at 21.457 million acres, down less than 200,000 from estimate contained in the federal agency’s first new-crop acreage report in March and 2.5% below a year earlier. If accurate, it would be the smallest Canadian canola seeded area since 2022 when 21.395 acres went into the ground.
Today’s estimate fell below the average pre-report trade estimate of 21.7 million acres and would seem to suggest producers took a relatively cautious approach this spring amid uncertainty caused by continued Prairie dryness and Canadian trade tensions with the US and China. In March, China slapped 100% import duties on imports of Canadian canola oil and meal, but spared shipments of canola seed. On the other hand, canola demand has remained brisk, with prices rising strongly throughout most of the spring.
Whatever the reasoning of producers, the lower acreage number ramps up the pressure for good yields this year. The old-crop supply pipeline is running short, although StatsCan did finally take the opportunity today to retroactively revise its 2024 production estimate higher, up to 19.184 million tonnes from the previous projection of 17.845 million. The 2023 crop was bumped higher as well, to 19.463 million tonnes from 19.192 million.
In its June supply-demand update, Agriculture Canada forecast 2024-25 canola ending stocks at 1.15 million tonnes, down sharply from 2.75 million a year earlier. This month’s supply-demand outlook also contained a feed, waste and dockage number of negative 959,000 tonnes, which required a supply increase in order to remedy.
Meanwhile, weather across the Prairies has not been ideal. Large parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan did see relief from overly dry and drought conditions this past weekend, but crops are continuing to struggle in other parts of the Prairies where rainfall was more limited.
In the largest canola production province of Saskatchewan, StatsCan said producers planted 12.027 million acres of canola, down from March intentions of 12.229 million acres of canola and slightly below the previous year’s 12.085 million. Alberta canola area is estimated at 6.208 million acres, up from 6.11 million in March but down from 6.385 million last year. At 3.028 million acres, Manitoba canola area is down from 3.121 million in March and below 3.336 million last year.
Today’s planted area estimates are based on a StatsCan survey conducted from May 15 to June 12, 2025, and included approximately 25,000 farms.
