Timely late-season rains across the Prairies pushed estimated 2025 Canadian canola production to a new record high.
Statistics Canada’s final crop production report for the 2025 growing season on Thursday pegged national canola output at 21.803 million tonnes, up about 1.7 million from the federal agency’s model-based September projection and now 13.3% above the 2024 crop of 19.239 million. If accurate, it would be the largest crop on record, surpassing the 2017 crop of 21.458 million.
The increase in production is due to a higher average yield, rising to 44.7 bu/acre. That’s up from 41.2 bu in September and 38.8 bu last year and is also a new high, eclipsing the previous peak of 42.3 bu in 2016. Harvested area was unchanged from earlier estimates at about 21.4 million acres, down from 21.85 million the previous year.
Most traders and analysts were expecting today’s report to raise canola production from September, with some estimates at 22 million tonnes or above.
The production estimates are based on a survey sent to approximately 27,200 Canadian farms and conducted from Oct. 3 to Nov. 6.
In Western Canada, weather conditions were somewhat variable throughout the 2025 growing season, StatsCan said. Despite dry conditions throughout early parts of the summer, timely precipitation later in the growing season considerably improved conditions, it added.
“The improvement in growing conditions pushed yields and production for several crops grown predominantly in the Prairies to record highs.”
Saskatchewan remains the biggest contributor to Canada’s bumper crop and the province responsible for virtually all the upward revision from StatsCan’s September estimate. The new provincial yield estimate of 44.4 bu/acre — up from the 40.6 bu/acre projected in September — represents a 15.9% jump from the previous year’s 38.3 bu. Production now stands at 12.203 million tonnes, far above the 11.167 million tonnes forecast in September and 16.7% higher than 2025.
Alberta’s revised 2026 outlook shows production climbing to 6.349 million tonnes, versus 5.757 million in September and 5.598 million a year earlier. The average yield in the province is estimated at 45.4 bu/acre, up from both the 41.5 bu/acre forecast in September and the previous year’s 39.1 bu — representing a 16.1% annual jump.
Manitoba’s canola production is pegged at 3.062 million tonnes, up from the 2.949-million tonne September estimate and slightly above the 2024 crop of 3.016 million. Manitoba’s average yield is now projected at 44.8 bu/acre, higher than the 43.5 bu/acre projected in September, and 11.4% above last year’s 40.2 bu average.
