Agriculture Canada has tightened its 2025-26 dry pea outlook from last month, although projected ending stocks remain record large regardless. Meanwhile, lentil ending stocks are heavier this month.
Monday’s monthly supply-demand updated pegged new-crop pea ending stocks at 975,000 tonnes, down from 1.3 million in June but up sharply from 425,000 a year earlier and just 299,000 in 2023-24. If accurate, that would top the 2009-10 ending stocks level of 910,000 tonnes.
The decline in the ending stocks estimate comes despite the fact Ag Canada raised its 2025 pea production estimate slightly from last month – up to 3.2 million tonnes from 3.125 million – based on a small revision higher in the average yield projection. Planted area, at 3.5 million acres, is down incrementally from last month based on Statistics Canada June acreage report.
On the demand side, Ag Canada hiked its 2025-26 dry pea export forecast by a hefty 400,000 tonnes from last month to 2 million tonnes, but that remains below estimated 2024-25 exports of 2.3 million.
India, China, and Bangladesh expected to be Canada’s top pea markets in 2025-26, Ag Canada said. However, Canada’s exports to China remain the subject of a 100% tariff that Beijing levied back in March as retaliation for Canadian tariffs on Chinese EVs, steel, and aluminum. Canada exported just under 1 million tonnes of peas to China in 2023-24.
At $365, the average expected 2025-26 pea price is unchanged from last month but down from $405 for 2024-25.
On the other hand, lentil ending stocks for 2025-26 are now seen at 530,000 tonnes, up sharply from 305,000 in June. The increase is due to a revision in the 2024-25 export forecast - down 100,000 tonnes from last month to 2 million. With a smaller export forecast, Ag Canada increased its old-crop lentil ending stocks estimate by an identical 100,000 tonnes to 405,000 – meaning a larger amount to carry into 2025-26.
Ag Canada also raised its 2025 lentil production estimate to 2.45 million tonnes from 2.325 million last month, based on the larger planted area (4.37 million acres) cited in Statistics Canada’s June acreage report.
The 2025-26 average lentil price forecast was maintained at $730/tonne from last month, down from $805 in 2024-25.
