Provincial yield estimates released by the Saskatchewan government on Thursday suggest the likelihood of bigger than expected 2025 Prairie crops.
Except for canola, the province’s major crop yield estimates – based on conditions as of Monday – are universally higher than the projections released last month by Statistics Canada and based on conditions up until the end of July. Large parts of the Prairies were unfavourably dry through July, but better moisture in August provided a significant boost for many crops.
For example, the province is estimating this year’s average Saskatchewan durum yield at 38 bu/acre, above StatsCan’s August forecast of 33.4 bu. At 93 and 71 bu, the average expected oat and barley yields are up from StatsCan’s 91 and 61.8 bu, while the average spring wheat yield is seen at about 50 bu, versus 46.6 bu for StatsCan.
The average pea yield of 42 bu is more than 7 bu above the StatsCan estimate, with lentils, at 1,784 lbs/acre, up from 1,313 lbs. The province’s canary yield estimate of 1,343 lbs/acre is 264 lbs above StatsCan, the chickpea estimate is 370 lbs higher at 1,622 lbs, and mustard is 378 lbs higher at 1,141 lbs.
The province sees the average flax yield at 25 bu/acre, compared to 20.5 for StatsCan, and the average soybean yield at 40 bu/acre, far above 24.1 bu for StatsCan.
On the other hand, Saskatchewan estimated the average canola yield in the province at 39 bu/acre, down slightly from the federal agency’s projection of 40.3 bu.
StatsCan will release updated yield estimates next week, reflecting conditions as of the end of August.
Meanwhile, farmers across the province made major strides in the field this past week, with 41% of this year’s crop in the bin as of Monday, up sharply from 23% a week earlier. However, progress remains behind the five-year average of 58% and the 10-year average of 49%.
Mostly dry weather aided harvest, but equipment and combine fires have been reported as a concern. Producers are also keeping a close eye on stored grain for potential bin heating after combining in high temperatures, the report said.
The southwest leads harvest activity at 55% complete, followed by the southeast at 50%. The northwest sits at 41%, east-central at 31%, and both the west-central and northeast regions at 27%.
Winter cereals and field peas are nearly harvested. Lentils are 84% done, while triticale stands at 64%, barley at 54%, durum at 49%, spring wheat and oats both at 35%, and canary seed at 11%. Among oilseeds, mustard is 27% complete, canola 12%, and flax just 3%. Chickpeas are 24% harvested.
Cropland topsoil moisture was rated 2% surplus, 58% adequate, 33% short and 7% very short as of Monday, compared to 2% surplus, 67% adequate, 29% short and 2% very short the previous week.
