Corn futures ended sharply lower on Friday as the USDA delivered a major bearish surprise in its October crop production and WASDE reports, raising its U.S. corn yield and ending stocks estimates well beyond trade expectations. Wheat was also lower while soybeans managed small gains.
The USDA raised its 2026 corn yield estimate by 2.7 bu/acre from September to 181.2 bushels, compared to pre-report expectations for a modest decline to around 177.8 bushels. Production was increased by 234 million bushels to 16.034 billion, roughly 315 million above trade expectations. The larger crop, combined with increased carry-in supplies following September's bearish Grain Stocks report, pushed projected 2026-27 ending stocks to 1.849 billion bushels, well above the approximately 1.68 billion expected by traders. Corn futures plunged nearly 30 cents following the report, with the unexpectedly large supply estimates triggering aggressive selling. December closed 20 ½ cents lower at $4.79 ¾, and March was down 21 cents at $4.94 ¼.
Wheat futures also closed lower after the USDA raised its U.S. ending stocks forecast by 23 million bushels to 740 million, compared to expectations for a much smaller increase. A 25-million bu reduction in projected U.S. exports added to the bearish tone. December Chicago fell 12 ¼ cents to $6.71, and December Kansas City lost 17 cents to $7.19 ¼. December Hard Red Spring fell 8 cents to $7.15 ½, and December Minneapolis ended with a 10 ¾-cent loss at $6.95 ¼.
Soybean futures initially came under pressure but recovered to finish with modest gains. The USDA raised its soybean yield estimate to 53.1 bushels per acre and ending stocks to 315 million bushels, both above expectations. However, soybeans managed to shake off the bearish numbers, with bargain buying and expectations for continued strong demand. November gained 4 ½ cents to $12.92, and March was 4 ¾ cents higher at $13.18 ¾.
