The USDA has revised its 2026-27 U.S. soybean ending stocks estimate higher from last month, even as traders had been expecting a modest decline.
In its October supply-demand update released Friday, the USDA pegged the average U.S. soybean yield at 53.1 bu/acre, up from its September estimate of 52.8 bu. With the higher yield, and harvested area unchanged at 85.9 million acres, production was raised by 27 million bu from last month to 4.562 billion, now up 7% on the year and a new record high
Ahead of the report, traders had expected smaller increases to both the average yield and production, with the average yield guess at 52.9 bu and production at 4.538 billion.
The USDA also raised its 2026-27 soybean ending stocks forecast by 5 million bu from September to 315 million, compared to trade expectations for a decline to 308 million.
Total U.S. soybean supplies were increased by 17 million bu to 4.902 billion, with higher production partially offset by a 10-million bu reduction in beginning stocks to 315 million, as per the USDA’s Sept. 30 grain stocks report which showed national soybean inventories as of Sept. 1 down 3% on the year.
On the demand side, the USDA raised projected soybean exports by 10 million bu to 1.695 billion, while leaving domestic crush unchanged at 2.780 billion bu.
Soybean futures were trading 16-17 cents/bu lower this afternoon.
The projected season-average U.S. soybean farm price was unchanged at $12/bu. Soybean meal and oil price forecasts were also steady at $340/short ton and 70 cents/lb, respectively.
Globally, the USDA raised its 2026-27 soybean production forecast by 400,000 tonnes to 442.7 million tonnes, reflecting higher U.S. output that more than offset reductions for India and the European Union.
Global soybean ending stocks were increased by 300,000 tonnes to 124.3 million tonnes, while crush and export forecasts were also raised.
Elsewhere in the oilseed complex, the USDA lowered Indonesia's palm oil production forecast by 2.2 million tonnes to 45 million tonnes due to dry weather. Global palm oil production is now expected to decline by 2.5 million tonnes from last year, leaving ending stocks at their lowest level since 2017-18.
