After taking a gut punch from the USDA’s September grain stocks report, the corn market has just taken another heavy blow.
Rather than revise its 2026 average U.S. corn yield estimate down from last month as was almost universally expected by the trade, the USDA on Friday raised the yield by 2.7 bu/acre to 181.2 bu. That is still below the previous year’s 186.5 bu, but easily topped the average pre-report trade guess of 177.8 bu.
The higher yield tacked 234 million bu onto the 2026 production estimate, which now rises to 16.034 billion bu, still down 5% on the year but the second largest crop on record.
Meanwhile, 2026-27 U.S. corn beginning stocks were raised 173 million bu from last month, based on the bearish Sept. 30 grain stocks report which showed total American corn inventories as of Sept. 1 at about 2.1 billion bu, up 35% from a year earlier.
With the larger 2026 crop and bigger total supply, the USDA did revise total expected corn use higher from September but ending stocks still climbed 282 million bu to 1.849 billion bu, compared to 2.095 billion in 2025-26.
Corn futures were trading about 26 cents/bu lower following the report’s noon hour EST release.
In terms of demand, the USDA raised all its 2026-27 use estimates, including exports which were bumped 25 million bu higher from September to 3.3 billion. Corn for ethanol use was raised 50 million bu to 5.65 billion, and feed and residual was up 50 million to 5.6 billion.
Some of the largest state-level increases in average corn yields compared to September were seen in Nebraska, up 11 bu to 188; Tennessee, up 8 to 189; and Ohio, up 6 to 200. Yields were also raised by 5 bu in Missouri to 181 and Mississippi to 196, while Indiana and Michigan each gained 7 bu to 200 and 180, respectively. Iowa's yield estimate was unchanged from September at 219 bu, while Illinois dropped 1 bu to 208.
Among the largest downward revisions, South Carolina was cut by 7 bu to 92, while North Dakota and Virginia each declined by 3 bu to 132 and 167, respectively.
Globally, EU corn production is lowered this month to 48 million tonnes from 50.6 million in September on a combination of harvest results and revised government estimates, particularly in France where production is forecast 38% below the prior year due to heat and drought. Ukraine corn production and exports were left steady from last month at 31.8 million and 22 million tonnes, respectively.
World corn ending stocks, at 280.4 million tonnes, are up a hefty 8.3 million this month, primarily reflecting larger stocks for the U.S. Corn ending stocks in 2025-26 amounted to 307.2 million.
The estimated season-average corn price received by producers is down a dime this month at $4.70/bu, versus $4.16 a year earlier.
