The USDA left its 2026-27 U.S. corn outlook virtually unchanged this month, with the only supply-side change a 3 million-bu increase tied to a higher import forecast carried in from the old-crop balance sheet.
In its June supply-demand update on Thursday, USDA left 2026-27 U.S. corn production unchanged at 15.995 billion bu, while all major demand categories were also steady. Feed and residual use was held at 6.1 billion bu, food, seed and industrial use at 6.955 billion, including 5.6 billion for ethanol, and exports at 3.15 billion.
With no change in use, the small increase in 2026-27 beginning supplies carried directly into ending stocks, which were raised 3 million bu from May to 1.96 billion, slightly above the average pre-report trade guess of 1.942 billion.
The season-average farm price was unchanged at $4.40/bu.
Corn futures were trading about 7-8 cents/bu lower this afternoon, following the report’s noon hour EST release.
For old-crop 2025-26, USDA also made only modest adjustments to the U.S. corn balance sheet. Corn used for ethanol was reduced by 25 million bushels, while exports were increased by an offsetting 25 million. With the 3-million bu increase in imports, old-crop ending stocks were lifted by the same amount to 2.145 billion bu.
Globally, USDA’s 2025-26 corn outlook turned looser, with world ending stocks raised 6.41 million tonnes to 303.36 million tonnes on larger supplies. Production was increased for India, Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay, while Mexico was lowered. Brazil’s crop was raised 3 million tonnes to 138 million, while Argentina was increased 2 million tonnes to 61 million.
For 2026-27, USDA raised global corn ending stocks by 3.68 million tonnes from May to 281.22 million tonnes, reflecting larger foreign supplies, including higher production in India. USDA said the largest year-over-year production declines are expected in the United States, Argentina, South Africa, Mexico, Ukraine and Turkey, partly offset by larger crops in China, Brazil, Serbia, Kenya and Russia.
