Agriculture Canada has raised its 2025-26 canola average price forecast, after trimming it in October. The expected soybean price has also improved this month.
In its latest monthly supply-demand estimates released Monday, Ag Canada pegged the season average canola price at $670/tonne (No. 1 Canada, cash, Track Vancouver). That’s up $25 from the October projection and closer to the previous season’s $677 average. In October, Ag Canada lowered its price forecast to $645 from $675 in September.
Aside from the price change, Ag Canada made no other changes to its 2025-26 canola outlook, with forecasted ending stocks steady from last month at 2.5 million tonnes, up almost 1 million from a year earlier. Exports and crush were likewise steady at 7 million and 11.8 million tonnes, respectively.
Canola price-related factors to watch for the current marketing year, include crop quality, the farmer delivery pace, the crush and export pace, and US soybean and soy-product prices, Ag Canada said. Another key factor for canola prices remains any progress towards resolution of China’s anti-dumping duty on Canadian canola, it added.
For soybeans, Ag Canada now sees this year’s average price at $520/tonne (No. 2 CE, cash, I/S Chatham), up $35 from October and above $487 in 2024-25, although still below the five-year average of $608.
Recent Chinese buying of US supplies has helped lift Chicago soybean futures, with the USDA in November also raising its season average price forecast for American producers, up 50 cents/bu from September to US$10.50/bu (US$386/tonne).
In other changes this month, Ag Canada lowered its 2025-26 durum ending stocks estimate by 100,000 tonnes from last month to 1.1 million – still well above 496,000 a year earlier. This month’s downward revision in ending stocks is due to an identical-sized increase in the export forecast, which now rises to 5.2 million tonnes, versus 5.821 million in 2024-25.
The average expected durum price, at $280/tonne (No. 1 CWAD, 13% protein) was unchanged from October and well down from $321 last year.
